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Zimbabwe: Three years of inclusive government
Action for Southern Africa (ACTSA)
February 15, 2012

http://www.actsa.org/newsroom/2012/02/zimbabwe-three-years-of-inclusive-government/

February 11th was the 3rd anniversary of the formation of the Inclusive Government in Zimbabwe. Not much seems to have changed since the 2nd anniversary.

Initially there was some economic improvement yet unemployment is at very high levels, goods may be in shops but for most Zimbabweans they are unaffordable. The violation of human rights, intimidation, arrests and harassment, the denial of freedom of expression, organisation and the use of the apparatus of the state in support of one political party, Zanu PF continues. Whilst the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) took a stronger stance on Zimbabwe and expressed impatience at the slowness in the implementation of the Global Political Agreement which is the basis for the Inclusive Government this has not had any observable impact on the ground. It is estimated that over the coming months approx 1 million Zimbabweans will need food aid. What then of the prospects for the future. Will it be more of the same? Quite possibly. However there is something different when contemplating the next 18 months. Zimbabwe has to hold elections in the next 18 months. Elections, or their prospect may lead to greater violence and intimidation. This has certainly happened in the past and since losing the 2008 parliamentary elections Zanu PF has increasingly adopted a military strategy to ensure it retains control of Zimbabwe.

Before elections Zimbabwe should hold a referendum on a new constitution but there are increasing doubts whether there ever will be a referendum and if there is then it is because the main political parties have agreed, so a referendum which, if it happens, is not marked by intimidation and violence is not necessarily a sign that contested elections will similarly be free of violence, intimidation and vote rigging.

However if Zimbabwe yet again has elections which are clearly not free and fair, which do not confirm to the principles and guidelines for the conduct of democratic elections which SADC has agreed for all its members the political crisis will continue and unless the political crisis is dealt with then the economic crisis will remain. The stalemate will continue.

Those who fear the prospect of change, the possibility of loss of wealth, status and that action may be taken against them for alleged human rights violations will use the means they control to try and retain power. But this does not mean that change is impossible or even unlikely. What do the people of Zimbabwe want? Can they make their will and aspirations heard? Will they be able to freely elect and hold to account their leaders? Whether elections are democratic or their imminence leads to increased violence and intimidation will largely depend on Zimbabweans but what of the role of the international community?

The key player is SADC. It has a facilitation role which South Africa leads. SADC sees its role as facilitating a "settlement" between the competing parties, not imposing one, not taking sides. However this stance has often come across as support for the status quo, i.e. that Zanu PF retains power. SADC leaders want a solution on Zimbabwe. They want it off their agenda. They have been discussing it for a decade. If however SADC goes along with sham elections which clearly do not conform to the letter and spirit of its guidelines for the conduct of democratic elections then the crisis in Zimbabwe is likely to continue and Zimbabwe will remain on their agenda. It is clearly in the interests of SADC to insist that the process to and the actual elections in Zimbabwe meet democratic principles and standards. If they do not then not only will Zimbabweans have been let down SADC will have let itself down.

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