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D-Day for Tsvangirai
Nelson Banya, The Financial Gazette (Zimbabwe)
October 14, 2004

http://www.fingaz.co.zw/fingaz/2004/October/October14/6758.shtml

THE judgment in the treason trial of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) president Morgan Tsvangirai, to be handed down by Judge President Paddington Garwe tomorrow, will leave an indelible mark on Zimbabwe's political landscape howsoever the verdict goes.

Tsvangirai's year-long trial on charges of attempting to assassinate his nemesis, President Robert Mugabe, ahead of the hotly contested presidential poll in 2002, ended in February and the verdict has been anxiously awaited ever since.

If convicted, Tsvangirai faces capital punishment or a lengthy incarceration.

While the MDC leadership, which this week affirmed its solidarity with its embattled leader, dismisses the basis of the state's case against Tsvangirai, the possibility of a conviction tomorrow is, no doubt, disconcerting.

Further, a conviction - unthinkable to the multitudes of Tsvangirai's followers and international sympathisers - could trigger radical changes to the MDC, a party the former trade unionist has led since inception in 1999.

There have been reports of a sharp division within the MDC as to which course to take should Tsvangirai be convicted tomorrow.

Some, it has been argued, have been pushing for what they perceive to be a pragmatic position: finding a replacement to ensure the party is not rudderless as it enters the crucial pre-election phase. But others would prefer to retain Tsvangirai as a statement of support.

It would appear, though, as if the latter view prevailed at Monday's meeting of the MDC national council.

"The MDC national council met and considered the upcoming judgment on the treason case of MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai. The council re-affirmed the MDC view that it is democracy on trial, not the president as an individual.

"The MDC national council resolved that it will stand in solidarity with the president on judgment day," party spokesperson Paul Themba Nyathi announced this week.

It has also been suggested that the ZANU PF government, which has scarcely had peaceful sleep since Tsvangirai and fellow trade unionists in the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions teamed up with the student movement, imperilled white citizens and sections of the intellectual community to found the MDC, would find a conviction desirable.

A conviction would jeopardise Tsvangirai's electoral prospects. The country's laws bar convicted persons from running for political office.

An acquittal, on the other hand, would be a massive boost for Tsvangirai, who has said his party's push for power has now entered the decisive phase, despite the current uncertainty surrounding the MDC's participation in next year's parliamentary elections.

This would be a serious public relations disaster for the ZANU PF government, which has never missed an opportunity to characterise the opposition leader as a puppet of dangerous extraneous interests - mainly Britain and the United States.

The government, which is battling to restore its battered image at home and abroad, could find itself in a ponderous situation should Tsvangirai be convicted. And it will take a lot of egg in the face if he is acquitted.

Two senior MDC officials - secretary general Welshman Ncube and Gweru Rural Member of Parliament Renson Gasela - who, according to the state, were also guilty of complicity in the treason case were acquitted.

Most opposition leaders who have challenged ZANU PF's hold on power have been arraigned on treason or other charges.

"This is not the first time that those who have led the people in the fight for peace and freedom in Zimbabwe have been charged under treason. Dumiso Dabengwa and Lookout Masuku of ZAPU and Ndabaningi Sithole of ZANU (Ndonga) were charged, while Joshua Mqabuko Nkomo had to flee under serious threat to his life from the regime," Nyathi noted.

Tsvangirai himself has been calm ahead of the day of reckoning, peremptorily going about party business. He never made mention of the upcoming judgment in his weekly message, dwelling instead on his recent trips to Gwanda North, Zaka East and Masvingo Central constituencies.

"People are yearning for their freedom. They are demanding a new beginning that will create jobs and deliver food on the table.

"They are demanding the immediate restoration of confidence in the electoral system. My party is ready to play its role in this process," Tsvangirai said.

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