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Can Zimbabwe survive a sudden exit by President Mugabe?
Peter Moyo, AND Africa
June 22, 2006

http://www.zimbabwesituation.com/jun22a_2006.html

AND Africa - Many a political analyst have predicted doom should the Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe make a sudden exit, either through death or ill health. Some have predicted that there would be chaos and a free for all gung ho kind of situation. Others have argued the possibility of a civil war should President Mugabe's exit not be properly managed.

Todd Moss & Steward Patrick, in their trilogy contribution to The Zimbabwean argue that the abrupt demise of the Mugabe regime could trigger serious disorder. They further suggest that the possibility of this means that the international community, probably led by South Africa, should make contingency plans for temporary military intervention to ensure physical safety and public order if necessary. For anyone who has been following the Zimbabwe situation and have reported and visited Zimbabwe, this kind of scenario is highly unlikely. As much as Zanu PF is at its most divided state because of the succession debate, the person who is likely to take over in a transition period is no kid gloves.

Though there are two Vice Presidents in Zimbabwe at the moment, Joyce Mujuru, the first female Vice President in Africa is the most favourable and practical candidate to take over ahead of the ailing Joseph Musika. According to the Zimbabwe constitution Section 31 under the Executive summary, the Vice whenever the office of President is vacant or the President is absent from Zimbabwe or is unable to perform the functions of his office by reason of illness or any other cause, his functions shall be assumed and performed by the Vice President whom the President has designated for such an eventuality.

So in this case, it means by law, President Mugabe could have already chosen his successor should anything happen to him. We have seen the ascension of VP Mujuru, a wife of a very powerful former Army General, Solomon Mujuru. Many have said Mujuru's husband is known as the King maker within the echelons of power in the ruling Zanu PF. This can be seen in the context of the events of 2004 where 6 out of 10 Zanu PF provinces had chosen to back another candidate, only for Joyce Mujuru to emerge and eventually take over the Vice Presidency in the last hours.

Although there was a fall-out with other Zanu PF bigwigs on this issue, the party remained intact with those opposing the decision either being singled out and fired or suspended. However, according to the constitution, the Vice President will have to organise and election within three months to choose a new President. The point of reference in question is whether Zimbabwe can survive the three months following the sudden exit of Mugabe. If there is such an eventuality, Mujuru who seems a favourable figure to negotiate with will take over.

Mujuru has earned her stripes, having at one time occupied the powerful post of Defence Minister after the death of the incumbent, Moven Mahachi in a car accident. She was the youngest cabinet minister at the age of 25 when Zimbabwe attained independence in 1980 and she has been in government ever since. With the opposition pushing for dialogue, it will be easier to negotiate with her as she has never shown any signs of a person trying to go it alone.

The current problems being faced by Zimbabweans in trying to bring some normalcy to the country is that there is so much negative energy created around President Mugabe's name. It is a foregone conclusion that any future settlement seems to be pointing to President Mugabe's exit. As much as he is part of any future settlement, a clear exit plan seems to be tow line in many quarters. This is because the brand created around the name 'Mugabe' is no longer investor friendly.

Over the last year, we have seen the international community trying to find ways to bi-pass him and talk to his colleagues. There is fertile ground for a future acceptance by the international community and investors of anyone within Zanu PF other than Mugabe. This means Joyce Mujuru's future position in a transitional power is already guaranteed. She has remained quiet on international diplomacy and has not been directly tainted by the policies like the Operation Clean out Trash which left thousands of Zimbabweans homeless. The operation was personified by President Mugabe himself.

There has also been talk of a possible army coup after Mugabe's sudden departure but again as former Defence Chief, it will be easy for Joyce Mujuru to assume the role of Commander in Chief. There is also talk that her husband, a former general and army commander himself is still very powerful in army circles, it will be impossible for his former subordinates to plot a coup. The last issue of civil war has already been overplayed. At the formation of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, there was much talk of them launching a guerrilla struggle to dislodge Mugabe.

The opposition has in most cases refuted these claims and furthermore, launching a guerrilla attack after Mugabe's exit will be ill-informed and illogically. Chances of such a scenario have come and gone. History also dictates that it is highly impossible to launch a guerrilla attack in Zimbabwe because of a strict code within the Southern African community which does not support such an occurrence.

Most political parties in power in southern African countries are known allies of the Zanu PF regime because of the historical importance of the party personified by the Zimbabwe government to help any country attacked. These scenarios have played themselves out in Mozambique, Angola and the DRC. Finally, after the break-up of the opposition, the international community and interested parties seemed to have resigned themselves to dealing with a reformed Zanu PF other than opposition parties built on shaky foundations. If Mugabe was to go today, the mood is set for Vice President Mujuru to oversee a peaceful transition.

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