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The
public mood on Zimbabwe's Inclusive Government
Afrobarometer
August
30, 2010
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After protracted
political negotiations to resolve Zimbabwe's chronic political
impasse, which were facilitated by former South African President
Thabo Mbeki under the auspices of the Southern African Development
Community (SADC), a tripartite agreement was signed by incumbent
President Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic
Front (ZANU-PF), Morgan Tsvangirai of the main Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC-T) and Arthur Mutambara of the splinter MDC-M formation.
The Global Political
Agreement (GPA) was a framework for the three partners to work
together to resolve the country's multi-layered crisis and
the institutional framework was inaugurated with the formation in
February 2009 of a coalition government commonly referred to as
the Inclusive Government (IG). The IG received a mixed reception
from the Zimbabwe public, with some praising it while others condemned
it as a poor substitute for a democratically elected government.
Afrobarometer sought the public's adjudication on this matter
by asking Zimbabweans their opinions on a number of issues relating
to the IG. This Briefing Paper presents the survey's findings.
The
Afrobarometer
The Afrobarometer
is a comparative series of public attitude surveys on democracy,
governance, markets and living conditions. The survey is based on
a randomly selected national probability sample of 1200 respondents
representing a cross-section of adult Zimbabweans aged 18 years
or older. A sample of this size yields a margin of error of ±3
percent at a 95 percent confidence level. All interviews are conducted
face-to-face by trained fieldworkers in the language of the respondent's
choice. Fieldwork for the Afrobarometer in Zimbabwe was undertaken
in May 2009.
Perceptions
of the Inclusive Government
The survey first
asked respondents to indicate whether, in their view, the Inclusive
Government was "the best way to resolve the recent post-election
crisis" or whether some alternative way should have been pursued
(see Figure 1 for full question wording). A full two thirds either
"strongly agree" (41%) or "agree" (25%)
that creating the IG was the The Public Mood on Zimbabwe's
Inclusive Government Copyright Afrobarometer 2 best way forward.
Only a quarter (26%) thinks that "coalition government is
ineffective" and that "another way to resolve the crisis"
should have been pursued. The other 8% was either indifferent (4%)
or professed ignorance (4%). This is not entirely surprising given
the depth and longevity of the crisis. Most people welcomed any
intervention that provided some escape from the abyss. It is also
instructive that since the possibility of bilateral talks between
ZANU-PF and the MDC was first put to Afrobarometer respondents in
Round 2 (2004) and again
in Round 3 (2005), Zimbabweans have always expressed a desire for
the two parties to "sit down and talk with one another."
In 2004, 68% of our respondents expressed this sentiment and this
increased to 70% in 2005. So, in a large sense, the GPA and the
IG were in fulfillment of a long felt public outlook.
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