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Bracing for climate change reality in Zimbabwe
Wallace Mawire
January 28, 2010

Zimbabwe is getting more vulnerable to climatic changes with local climatologists predicting sectoral impacts affecting various sectors from environment, agriculture and food security, health, water resources, economic activities, human migration and physical infrastructure.

Climate change is the alteration of the earth's climate caused by the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide as a result of human activity. This eventually leads to global warming where the temperatures of the earth's surface have risen by 0.74 degrees celsius in the past 100 years.

Climatologists say that if recent trends continue or accelerate as per scientific prediction, the earth's temperatures may rise by 4 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100.Other causes of climate change are due to combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and modern farming methods for example fertilizer use.

Zimbabwe has not been spared from climatic changes and current dry spells affecting the country are being attributed to climate change.

Dr Priscah Mugabe, Deputy Director of the Institute of Environmental Studies at the University of Zimbabwe notes effects of climate change reflected in rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2005.

Mugabe says that there have been noticeable shifts in the onset of the rains, increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, increased proportion of low rainfall years, increased proportion of tropical cyclones reaching high intensity, drizzle weather events have declined, mid-term dry spells have become more frequent and intense. She adds that there are more changes in pattern than amounts.

She adds that sectoral impacts are beginning to be witnessed like on environment due to exposure to extreme weather events resulting in droughts and floods, expansion of semi-arid areas for example shift of some natural regions, stations like Chinhoyi, Chivero and their surroundings formerly in natural region 2 now classified under natural region 3, reduction and the reduced size of natural region 1, natural region 2 has been pushed further east, natural region 3 has shifted slightly upwards for example Kwekwe and surroundings now classified as natural region 4.

Dr Mugabe says that ecosystem changes are being noted as evidenced by grasslands shifting to shrubby savannah including biodiversity changes. On the agriculture and food security sector, crop yields in marginal zones have become more variable. Yields from rain-fed agriculture are expected to have reduced by up to 50% by 2020.She says that climate change introduces greater variability in maize yields.

"There is a strong likelihood that climate change will make natural region 4 a non-maize producing area," she says.

Reduced livestock production is anticipated as a result of reduced forage base for cattle, increase of pests and diseases like tsetse flies and ticks.

"A shift to smaller browsing animals like goats is anticipated," Dr Mugabe says.

A reduced productivity of crop-livestock systems of marginal rural areas is anticipated.

On the health sector, an increase in malnutrition and consequent disorders with implications on child growth and development is anticipated including increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases. Also an increase in the distribution of the malaria-bearing Anopheles gambiae mosquito is anticipated.

High elevation areas currently on the fringes of endemic malaria zones will be most susceptible to infestation including increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.

Dr Mugabe notes that the implications are a burden on health care systems.

On water resources, she says that challenges of availability and accessibility are anticipated particularly affecting women. Reduced irrigation output exacerbated by other stressors for example deforestation and siltation. Changes in hydrology and run-off are anticipated for example at Lake Manyame upper catchment.

Anticipated economic impacts include increased food prices, diversion of resources towards relief, loss of employment opportunities and compromised hydro-based industries. For example at Lake Kariba from 1987 to 2005 lake surface temperatures rose by about 1 degree Celsius including significantly reduced kapenta fish catches.

On Zambezi river impacts have been reduced flow affecting hydro-electricity generation, biodiversity, affected fish breeding conditions and tourism. Human migration is also being affected resulting in localized population concentrations posed by climate variability.

A new set of refugees is anticipated to migrate into new settlements seeking new livelihoods and place additional demands on infrastructure and ecosystem services.

"A variety of migration patterns could thus emerge for example repetitive migrants and short term shock migrants with implications for ecosystems and land use alterations," Dr Mugabe notes.

She adds that physical infrastructure could fall prone to damage and destruction due to extreme events such as floods posing an extra burden on the government.

MDG attainment will also be affected for example eradication of extreme poverty is unlikely due to reduced agricultural production. Also attaining primary education will be impossible due to gender imbalances and drop outs. Reducing child mortality will be an uphill task due to increased diseases and combating major diseases like HIV and AIDS will be a major problem due to increased pressures and food insecurity.

Dr Mugabe also says that there is need for institutional support for research to understand local risks, sensitivities and adaptation options in response to climate change.

She says research on indigenous knowledge with science, gender variabilities and appropriate adaptation systems is recommended. Innovative technologies like water harvesting and soil water conservation, grain post harvest technologies have to be introduced including sending appropriate messages on extension, infrastructural development and disaster management.

She adds that climate change in Zimbabwe is most certain, unreliable and unpredictable. Its impacts are multifaceted with multiple additional stressors such as poverty and land degradation.

"There is need for multifaceted responses that address context," says Mugabe.

Dr Basile Tambashe, Country Representative for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Zimbabwe says that climate change is not just about technology.

He says that it a problem brought about by human activity and people are affected by climate change and need to adapt to it and only people can stop it.

He says that during the past half century, rapid population growth and industrialization have led to a rapid rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

"We have now reached a point where humanity is approaching the brink of disaster and Zimbabwe is beginning to feel the impact of climate change," says Tambashe.

Lungowe Sepo Marongwe, an Agricultural Extension Official with the Ministry of Agriculture notes that overall agricultural productivity in Zimbabwe, especially in the smallholder sector is very low and negative impacts of farming such as soil erosion and deforestation are reducing yields even further.

Marongwe says that erratic rainfall and more extreme climatic patterns necessitate improved farming patterns. She adds that droughts are being experienced more and more frequently in Zimbabwe and water conserving technologies which form part of conservation agriculture play a significant role in efficient utilization of all precipitation to ensure reasonable yields even during periods of low rainfall.

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