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ZIMBABWE: Numbers in need increase dramatically
IRIN News
January 28, 2004

Http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=39185

The number of people forecast to be in need of food aid in Zimbabwe over the next few months has risen dramatically to 7.5 million, up from an earlier estimate of 5.5 million.

Zimbabwe's population figure is 11.65 million.

Aid officials told IRIN an as yet unreleased urban vulnerability assessment would indicate that the number of people in need of assistance in urban areas had increased sharply due to the country's economic decline. This follows the revision upwards last year of the number of rural people in need of food aid.

In an appeal for donor assistance in April last year, the humanitarian community said 5.5 million people, of which 1.1 million were urban dwellers, would need food aid up to April this year.

A United States embassy spokesman in Harare told IRIN that the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) recently revised its estimate of vulnerable rural Zimbabweans from 4.4 million to 5 million.

"We understand that a recently concluded, but as yet unreleased, urban vulnerability assessment will conclude that 2.5 million urban Zimbabweans are now food insecure. These revised estimates are due principally to hyperinflation and the resulting unaffordability of basic food commodities," the spokesman said.

World Food Programme (WFP) spokeswoman Makena Walker told IRIN on Wednesday that an April 2003 figure of "1.1 million [people in need in urban areas] was only an estimate" at the time. She confirmed that an urban vulnerability assessment had recently been conducted by the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZIMVAC).

"If you take into account the rapid economic decline, the fact that factories and industries have closed, that inflation is at 600 percent, then it's obvious that a lot more people have become food insecure - people who could possibly afford food the previous year no longer can afford to purchase food," she explained.

This was evident from the rise in the prices of maize sold by the state's grain monopoly, the Grain Marketing Board (GMB). "The 50 kg bag of GMB maize sold at Zim $580 [about US $0.16 at current auction rates] last year - this year the prices for the same quantity vary from Zim $8,500 [about US $2.35 at current auction rates] to Zim $40,000 [US $11.07 at current auction rates]," said Walker.

These prices varied from area to area and availability was a problem. "Supplies are not high and are very erratic. [Consequently], most people would have to rely on the parallel market [for their food purchases], so it's possible that the number of food insecure people is much higher than what was estimated almost a year ago," she concluded.

The ZIMVAC is an inter-agency committee in which UN agencies, government and the Southern African Development Community participate. Their report will be released once the government has given its approval.

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