|
Back to Index
Zimbabwe
Humanitarian Situation Report - January 2004
The
UN Humanitarian Co-ordinator’s Bi-Monthly Report
January 31, 2004
This Food Security
Brief is a joint effort of FAO, WFP, UNDP and the UN Humanitarian
Co-ordinator's office/RRU in consultation with government and partners.
It is intended to contribute to the co-ordination and planning of
humanitarian activities and encourage dialogue.
Rainfall
situation
Large parts of the country have received above 80% of their normal
average rainfall up to the end of January 20041.
Some areas in the west of the country (Nkayi, Mhondoro, east of
Hwange) have received up to 160%. Some areas in the east (south
of Manicaland) have only received 40%. However, the rainfall pattern
has been characterized by uneven distribution and long dry spells
throughout the country, especially during November/December and
in early January.
The heavy early
rains recorded mainly in the south of the country have improved
cumulative totals, but may not have been effective for crop establishment
and growth. In addition, the long dry spells early in the season
put crops under extensive stress and many farmers were forced to
replant. Now, depending on planting (or re-planting) date, the recent
dry spells may put the maize crop under additional stress in the
period of highest water requirement.
The current
rains will reduce water stress for crops and prevent more crops
from wilting, but the impact on the overall yield level is likely
to be limited. Yields of the late-planted crops tend to be low (<0.5t/ha),
although good rains will ensure some small harvests, which should
improve individual family food security.
The growth and development of all crops, and especially maize, is
very sensitive not only to the cumulative rainfall, but perhaps
more importantly, the distribution of the rains during the season2.
Figure 2 illustrates
the growth of maize and the development relative to time from planting.
Rains are important for planting and establishing the crop, but
the most critical stages in terms of rainfall that, will determine
final yield is the silking and tasseling stage. This occurs approximately
6-8 weeks after planting, (normally mid January) depending on the
variety and levels of fertilizers and other inputs.
Cereal Production
Prospects
The overall cropping area of maize has declined to some extent;
however, the area planted to sorghum has increased noticeably.
According to
the AREX end of January cropping assessment, the maize cropping
areas for 2003/2004 are projected at 1.1 -1.2 million hectares.
This is slightly below last year's cropping area and a reduction
of around 10% from the 1995 to 2001 average of 1.3 million hectares3.
The reported area under sorghum for this season is 207,000 hectares,
which is an increase of close to 300% from last season.
Implications
The decline
in the area planted with maize can be mainly attributed to the high
costs of maize seed and availability constraints particularly in
the rural areas. The costs for seed maize varied significantly throughout
the season and the country. The costs to establish a hectare of
maize ranged from ZW$125,000 (seed sources in Harare) to ZW$200,000
in more remote areas. Many farmers used sorghum seed to compensate
for the unavailability of maize seed, which contributed to the large
increase of the area planted with sorghum.
The final rainfall
distribution, in combination with the limited availability and high
prices of inputs, will ultimately determine the crop yield. However,
when considering historical yield data, yield levels of 0.4 to 0.8
MT/hectare are likely for maize and 0.9 to 1.1MT/hectare for sorghum4.
This would result in a total production in the range of 440,000MT
to 960,000MT for maize and 186,000MT to 230,000MT for sorghum.
These estimated
production levels for maize are lower than last years and would
represent between 30 and 50% of the annual requirement of 1.8 million
MT5. Some of the cereal requirements
will be offset by the anticipated higher than average sorghum harvest
as well as planned imports. The estimates of area planted, yield,
and expected production will be closely monitored in the coming
months and reported in the successive editions of the food security
brief.
Maize availability
and access
Maize is not
easily or readily available in markets throughout the country and
prices of maize and other food commodities remain very high. Maize
prices have increased 15% to 20% on a monthly basis, during the
second half of 2003. Where maize or maize meal is available on the
open market, prices are increasingly unaffordable for the poorest
people. Recent results from WFP and C-SAFE community household surveillance
(CHS) indicate that for ninety percent of the households maize was
either rarely or not available at all through official channels.
The ZIMVAC rural vulnerability assessment report was updated in
November to take into consideration the maize scarcity and price
increases from the beginning of the season.
The April 2003
ZimVAC report suggested that GMB price would rise up to a maximum
of ZW$246/kg until the end of November and assumed that maize would
be readily available through official channels, a situation that
did not prevail. Both the rural vulnerability assessment update
and the urban vulnerability assessment, which just have been concluded,
indicate that around 65% of the population are food insecure and
may need support to meet their immediate basic food requirements.
Developments
on availability and access of food and more detailed information
on household situation will be reported more specifically in the
next issue of the food security brief.
1 Department
of Meteorological Services, Rainfall Bulletin 14th January 2004
2 See
recent SADC-RRSU Special Agromet Update
3 As January
04, based on seed sales, AREX estimates of area planted to crops
(January crop survey), CFU, and FEWSNet.
4 Normal
Communal production: however in more favourable years, with higher
input availability, farmers in communal areas did produce around
1 MT/ha.
5 Average
national consumption, based on historic figures.
For more information,
please contact any of the contributing agencies. The next issue
of the Food Security Brief should be published at the beginning
of March 2004. This brief is available on the RRU website: www.zimrelief.info
For additional
information or comments, please contact the United Nations Relief
and Recovery Unit, Harare Tel: +263 4 792681, ext. 207 or e-mail:
Zimrelief.info@undp..org
This Situation
Report can be accessed on the Web at: www.reliefweb.int
then click on "by country", then click on "Zimbabwe"
Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.
TOP
|
