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Zimbabwe Monthly Report - February 2004
Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net)
February 26, 2004

http://www.fews.net/current/monthlies/report/?submit=y&m=1001184&f=zw

Summary

• Leaving out on-farm maize stocks of some farmers in the northern districts of the country, a deficit of about 61,000 MT is projected at the end of March 2004. This shortage could potentially be covered by these unmonitored stocks (which are likely to be in the range of 20,000 MT to 100,000 MT), but there are no effective marketing channels to facilitate redistribution of the maize from the surplus areas to deficit households.
• Most foodstuffs, including maize grain and maize meal, continue to be readily available in markets throughout most of the country. However, household purchasing power has been eroded by rampant inflation, which broke a new record high of 622.8 percent in January 2004. Inflation, reduced income options and high unemployment levels have undermined households' ability to buy the available food.
• The early harvest of green maize, pumpkins and squash is improving the food security situation in many rural areas. Areas where planting was only possible in January 2004 have not benefited from these harvests. In the southern districts, food is predominately being supplied by food aid programs.
• Given an estimated maize and small grain production of 1-1.3 million MT, Zimbabwe will have a cereal gap of 500-800,000 MT.
• Ensuring adequate food supplies to urban areas presents a considerable challenge because the majority of rural farmers will be reticent to sell their stocks given recent memories of three consecutive poor seasons. Thus, grain deliveries to the GMB are likely to be low.
• In September 2003, the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZIMVAC) carried out, for the first time, a nationwide food security status and vulnerability assessment in the urban areas of Zimbabwe. The results of the assessment, which were released in February 2004, are intended to form a baseline upon which a practical monitoring system on urban food security and livelihoods vulnerability will be established. A detailed report on this assessment can be obtained from the FEWSNET website under special reports.

1. Current Food Security Situations

1.1 Context
About 60 percent of Zimbabwe's population live in rural areas and base their livelihoods mainly on crop production and livestock farming. Rural households in the central and northern districts are normally able to produce enough crops for their own consumption and have a bit leftover to sell. Livestock are rarely sold in these areas of the country, but they play important roles in providing draft power and manure for crop production and are a store of wealth for households and a source of status within the community. In the southern districts of the country, livestock (mainly goats and cattle) provide the main source of income for rural households. Crops rarely do well due to low rainfall, and livestock are sold to purchase necessary food and other items. As a result, when crops fail and local markets are disrupted, the rural population must rely on a number of coping strategies that have been developed over time, including reduced consumption, increased efforts to generate cash income, and changes in expenditure. The urban population mainly relies on employment income to buy food. In urban areas, where households purchase almost all of their food, food security depends on the normal functioning of various markets (labour and food, in particular) to ensure households have adequate purchasing power to obtain the required food and non-food items.

1.2 National food security
Most foodstuffs, including maize grain and maize meal, continue to be readily available in markets throughout much of the country. However, household purchasing power, eroded by rampant inflation (which broke a new record high of 622.8 percent in January 2004), in addition to reduced income options and high unemployment levels, undermines households' ability to buy the available food. At the national level, grain availability is no longer the critical constraint, but its inadequate distribution throughout the country poses a significant problem for household food security.

Leaving out of the calculation the on-farm stock of some farmers in the northern parts of the country, a deficit of 61,000 MT is projected for the end of March 2004. (See Table 1) This shortage could potentially be covered by these unmonitored stocks (which are likely to be in the range of 20,000 MT to 100,000 MT), but there are no effective marketing channels to facilitate redistribution of the maize from the surplus areas to deficit households. The targeted release of 200,000 MT of Grain Marketing Board (GMB) maize stocks to deficit areas could go a long way in addressing this problem.

1.3 Rural food security
The early harvest of green maize, pumpkins and squash is improving food security in many rural areas, but areas along the Zambezi River, the northern parts of Nyanga and the southern district of Manicaland, where planting was only possible as late as January, have not benefited from these harvests. In the southern districts, food is predominately being supplied by food aid programs. GMB supplies remain erratic and inadequate in these areas. A better understanding of rural food security will be available after the ZIMVAC rural food security and vulnerability assessment scheduled for March and April 2004.

1.4 Urban food security
Basic foodstuffs have remained readily available on both the formal and the parallel markets, but prices are too high for the majority of urban households to afford.

The cost of the low-income urban household monthly basket in Harare, monitored by the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ), increased by 26 percent between December 2003 and January 2004, reaching around Z$851,000. Much of the increase is attributable to the non-food component of the basket, which grew by about 57 percent.

The food component increased only marginally. If school fees and uniforms were taken into consideration, the costs of which shot up astronomically in December and January, the monthly basket would have increased well beyond the Z$851,000 level. While living costs went up, industrial minimum wages remained unchanged at Z$47,000 per month, enough to cover only around 5% of monthly costs. Companies have been faced with serious staff shortages as employees opt to stay at home instead of working for such meaningless wages.

2. Agricultural Prospects for 2003/2004 Season

2.1. Improved rainfall distribution between December 2003 and January 2004
All areas in Zimbabwe, except for the southern provinces of Masvingo and Matebeleland South, received more than 30 mm of rainfall during the first week of February 2004. This was followed by a week of very low rainfall activity, except for in Manicaland Province, where cumulative totals were above 15mm.

Significant rains fell in areas to the north and west of the central watershed during the third week, while Masvingo Province, a large part of Matebeleland South and southern parts of Manicaland were relatively dry. By February 18, there was a significant improvement in rainfall, with the whole country recording rainfall at levels between 75-100 percent of normal for the first time since the start of the 2003/04 rainfall season. Wet conditions are expected to continue along and to the north of the main watershed, the main maize growing areas. The marked improvement in not only the cumulative rainfall amounts but its temporal distribution in the northern half of the country is benefiting the crops planted between mid-December and early January.

2.2 Area planted to cereals close to the 1990s' average
Relatively good rains fell in the northern districts of the country during the last half of January and the beginning of February, encouraging farmers to extend planting well beyond the usual cut off time. The total area planted to Zimbabwe's major cereal crops (maize, sorghum, and millet) is estimated to be around 10-20 percent higher than that planted to the same crops last year, and more than 6 percent above the 1990s average area of 1.697 million hectares. While the area planted to maize is now expected to approximate that of the 2002/03 and the 1990s' average of 1.318 million hectares, the area planted to sorghum is estimated to reach more than double that of last year and more than 70 percent of the 1990s' average of 146,000 hectares. The area planted to finger millet in the current season is also expected to surpass that of last season and the 1990s' average of 76,500 hectares. Pearl millet is expected to cover an area around 60 percent higher than that planted to this crop in 2002/03 agricultural season.

2.3 Condition and production prospects of major cereal crops improve
The November dry spell destroyed much of the cereal crop that had been planted in the southern areas during the mid-October rains. What little of this crop that survived was in wetlands and has reached physiological maturity. The next significant planting of cereal crops, which took place from mid-December to mid-January 2004, is estimated to occupy about 75 percent of the total area under maize this season. This crop is currently in its late vegetative to early maturing stages and is in fair to good condition. If the rains taper off as they normally do from mid-March, more than 20 percent of the current maize crop may not reach maturity. Given the combination of poor temporal rainfall distribution in the early part of the season, limited fertilizer applications, late planting, and the likelihood of rains phasing out in mid-March, maize yields are expected to range from 0.7 to 0.8 MT/ha. Maize production estimates for 2003/04, therefore, range from 800,000 MT - 1 million MT. Small grains are likely to add between 200,000 MT and 300,000 MT to the total cereal production, leaving an estimated national annual maize and small grains cereal deficit of between 40 and 55 percent of consumption requirements.

2.4 Major cash crops in fair to good condition
The cotton crop is mainly at vegetative and early reproductive growth stages and in good condition in most provinces. Yield levels and production estimates are close to last season's production of 228,000 MT. Most of the tobacco crop is at vegetative and early reproductive stages. Reaping and curing of flue-cured and oriental tobacco is in progress in some provinces. Tobacco yields for 2003/04 are expected to be close those of 2002/03. The National Early Warning Unit's annual Crop and Livestock Assessment, scheduled for March, will provide more details on production prospects.

2.5 Livestock condition and water supplies good
Grazing livestock are in a fair to good condition due to readily available grazing and water supplies. Dam levels and the water table also continue to improve with the rains.

3. Food Security Prospects for the 2004/05 Marketing Year
Given an estimated maize and small grain production of 1-1.3 million MT, Zimbabwe will have a cereal gap of between 500-800,000 MT. The government will need to step up its efforts to increase foreign currency earnings in order to finance maize imports in the 2004/05 marketing year that begins in April. The other food security challenge facing the government is improving consumer access to food. This requires policies to stabilize food prices, support revival of livelihoods in rural areas and create employment opportunities in the urban areas. Ensuring adequate food supplies to urban areas presents a considerable challenge because the majority of rural farmers will be reticent to sell their stocks given recent memories of three consecutive poor seasons; thus, grain deliveries to the GMB are likely to be low.

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