Back to Index

FEWS Zimbabwe Food Security update April - May 2004
Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net)
June 01, 2004

Download the Acrobat PDF document (138KB)
If you do not have the free Acrobat reader on your computer, download it from the Adobe website by clicking here.

Summary
Cereal availability at the national level will be less of a problem in the 2004/05 marketing year, compared to last year, given the following: expected improved maize and small grains harvest from the 2003/04 agricultural season; Government cereal stocks of about 200,000MT (as of March 31); food aid imports since April 1; and secured food aid in the pipeline. However, food access will remain a major problem for highly vulnerable households in both urban and rural areas.

Cereal deficits are predicted in about 20 rural districts, mostly in Manicaland and the two Matebeleland provinces. The government and its partners need to take advantage of the window offered by the small harvests in the deficit districts to put in place more effective market mechanisms to supply grain to deficit areas.

While basic foodstuffs such as maize meal, maize grain, sugar, flour, salt, cooking oil and meat are available on the market, the majority of poor urban households cannot afford to buy these commodities. Both annual and monthly inflation rates have declined since January, but remain precariously high and continue to erode real incomes.

1. Food Security Outlook for 2004/05 Marketing Year
Context
About 60 percent of Zimbabwe's population live in rural areas and base their livelihoods largely on crop production and livestock husbandry. Rural households in the central and northern districts are normally able to produce enough crops for their own consumption and have a bit leftover to sell. Livestock are rarely sold in these areas of the country, but they play important roles in providing draft power and manure for crop production and are a store of wealth for households and a source of status within the community.

In the southern districts of the country, livestock (mainly goats and cattle) provide the main source of income for rural households. With the exception of sorghum, crops rarely do well due to historically low rainfall, and livestock are sold to purchase necessary food and other items. As a result, when crops fail and local markets are disrupted, the rural population must rely on a number of coping strategies that have been developed over time, including reduced consumption, increased efforts to generate cash income, and painful changes in expenditure. The urban population mainly relies on employment income to buy food, but increasingly, urban and peri-urban production is supplying many households. In urban areas, where households purchase much of their food, food security depends on the normal functioning of various markets (labour and food, in particular) to ensure households have adequate purchasing power to obtain the required food and non-food items.

1.1 Major crop production estimates for the 2003/04 season
Maize and small grains production from the 2003/04 agricultural season is expected to be close to the average production of the last five years. FEWSNET is currently analyzing cereal production prospects for the 2003/04 season, and will provide a more detailed analysis shortly. Tobacco output for 2003/04 is expected to fall by about 32 percent from the last agricultural season's output of about 81,000MT. Cotton production is forecasted to surpass that of last year by about 32 percent. Tobacco and cotton production estimates for 2003/04 are 55,000 MT and 293,500 MT, respectively.

The FAO/WFP mission to verify crop production estimates in Zimbabwe started with in-country consultations as scheduled on April 26. The mission's fieldwork began April 30, but has since been suspended. No official report is expected from the mission. The Resident United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator issued a statement expressing regret and concern that should food assistance needs be identified later in the year, and were the Government to issue an appeal at that time, a very rapid response may not be possible.

The ongoing Zim VAC rural assessment should help to identify and quantify the number of households who will face severe food access difficulties in the coming year (because of both production declines and purchasing power problems), while establishing a better understanding of the extent to which livelihoods and coping capacity are being eroded.

1.2 National maize and small grains availability in the 2004/05 marketing year
Cereal availability at national level is not likely to be as much of a problem in the 2004/05 marketing year, compared to last year, given the expected likely improved maize and small grains harvest from the 2003/04 agricultural season, cereal stocks of about 200,000MT (as of March 31) as well as food aid imports since April 1 and secured food aid in the pipeline.

During the last three years, the country managed to import significant quantities of maize, despite facing severe foreign currency shortages. Conditions for importing food into the country are better this year than at any other time in the last four years. Currently, foreign currency inflows through official channels are improving. From January to March, gold sales were 50.6 percent greater than over the same period last year. Total foreign currency inflows, including foreign currency account liquidations, amounted to US$333.5 million during the first quarter of 2004. This surpasses the US$301.7 million realized over 2003. Additional measures to attract foreign currency into the country through official channels are expected.

The measures include:

• introduction of a special foreign currency rate for exporters, which is more than six times the previous exchange rate of Z$824/US$, and
• Introduction of a minimum foreign currency exchange rate for remittances by Zimbabweans living abroad, currently set at Z$5,200/US$.

In addition, the revised producer price for maize recently announced by the government of about US$140/MT is likely to encourage greater informal cross-border trade in maize from neighboring countries like Mozambique and Zambia, which not only have surpluses but lower producer prices. While food availability may not be a widespread problem at the household level, ensuring access to food is certainly going to be a major national challenge in the 2004/05 marketing year.

2. Current Food Security Situation
2.1 Rural food security
Cereal supplies are increasing with the ongoing harvest. Grain prices are lower, and generally, food insecurity has eased in the rural areas. The 2003/04 harvest is currently the most important source of staple grains for most rural areas of the country, with food aid distributions heavily supplementing this on-farm supply. The World Food Programme distributed over 43,600 MT of cereals to about 4 million beneficiaries in March, meeting the needs of around 80 percent of the food insecure rural population (as estimated by the Zim VAC for the January to March period). From March to April, maize prices declined by between 10 and 20 percent, reflecting the increased availability. Casual labor opportunities have also increased as more farmers hire people to help with the cereal and cotton harvests and the marketing of cotton and tobacco in the central and northern districts. In the southern districts, the edible mopani worms came into season, and many households were able to collect a significant amount for own consumption and sale.

Despite the general improvement in cereal availability in most rural districts this year, cereal deficits (consumption compared to production) are expected to remain in about 20 of Zimbabwe's 57 rural districts. The majority of these districts are in Manicaland and the two Matebeleland provinces. In some districts, household level deficits could be offset by income from cash crop and livestock sales and/or other sources of income at the disposal of rural households. The Zim VAC rural food security report and vulnerability assessment report, both of which are expected to be released in late May, will highlight where and when household food shortages are expected. The government and its partners need to take advantage of the window offered by the small harvests in the deficit districts to put in place efficient and effective mechanisms to deliver grain to these areas.

2.2 Urban food security
Most urban maize plots are currently being harvested, and this has complemented the supply of rural grain now arriving in urban markets. While urban and peri-urban farming is still small, it is growing fast as a result of costly and irregular food availability in many urban markets.

Basic foodstuffs such as maize meal, maize grain, sugar, flour, salt, cooking oil and meat are available on the market, but fresh milk supplies to most urban areas are erratic and inadequate. Despite market availability, the majority of urban households are unable to afford these items, as their purchasing power continues to melt away. Between November 2003 and March 2004, the gap between the minimum wage and value of the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ) low income household expenditure basket for a family of six has grown by around 42%, from about Z$600,000 in November 2003 to over Z$850,000 in March 2004. The minimum wage rate for industrial workers was equivalent to just 12 percent of the CCZ basket in March 2004 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Cost of monthly expenditure basket for a low-income urban household of six in Harare, November 2003-March 2004

Since January, a steady decline in both annual and monthly inflation rates has helped slow the drop in purchasing power, although the trend is still negative. The annual inflation rate fell from its all time high of 623 percent in January to 584 percent in March. The same period saw monthly inflation decelerate from 13.7 percent to 5.9 percent. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe believes the retreat in inflation is attributable to their success in slowing the runaway increases in general prices. The Bank remains optimistic that the target annual inflation rate of 200 percent will be met by the year's end provided the current monetary policies are maintained and supported by further fiscal measures.

3. Recommendations

• While the participation of the Grain Marketing Board in the grain market is important, increased private sector participation should be combined with better market incentives if surplus farmers are to offer their produce for sale.
• NGOs and Government should embark on livelihoods recovery programs better informed by soon to be published livelihoods assessments such as the Zimbabwe VAC assessments and the Poverty Assessment Study currently being undertaken.
• Targeted food aid should continue throughout the country for poor socio-economic groups. Special attention is required for the most vulnerable districts of Manicaland and Matebeleland South Provinces.
  

Please credit www.kubatana.net if you make use of material from this website. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License unless stated otherwise.

TOP